Market Insights

What Are the Odds You’ll Eventually Need Long-Term Care?

CRPC®, Certified Senior Advisor (CSA)®
CSA conferred by Society of Certified Senior Advisors.
CRPC conferred by College for Financial Planning.

It’s a question many families from Alexandria don’t ask until they’re already in the middle of a health crisis: what are the odds that someone will eventually need long-term care? For a lot of households, long-term care planning gets pushed aside because it feels distant, uncomfortable, or simply unlikely to apply to them. The reality is that long-term care touches a large share of older adults in some form, and understanding those odds early can make a meaningful difference in how prepared a family feels when the need actually arises.

For residents in Alexandria, balancing careers, aging parents, and their own retirement timelines, this is one of the more overlooked pieces of a financial plan. Below, we’ll look at what the research generally suggests about long-term care odds, why the numbers matter, and how eldercare planning fits into a broader financial strategy.

What the Research Generally Suggests

Estimates vary depending on the source and how “long-term care” is defined, but research from government health agencies and long-term care industry groups has consistently pointed to one conclusion: the odds that someone turning 65 today will need some form of long-term care during their remaining years are high, often cited in the range of roughly one in two to as many as seven in ten individuals. That care may look different from person to person. For some, it means a short stay in a rehabilitation facility after a fall or surgery. For others, it means years of in-home care, memory care, or a longer stay in an assisted living or skilled nursing setting.

What tends to surprise people most is the duration. Many who eventually need long-term care require it for an extended period, sometimes years rather than months, and the associated costs can accumulate quickly. This is part of why long-term care planning is often treated less like a niche topic and more like a core piece of retirement readiness.

Why This Matters More in a High Cost-of-Living Area

Alexandria and the broader Northern Virginia region carry a higher cost of living than much of the country, and that extends to care services as well. In-home care, assisted living communities, and skilled nursing facilities in and around Alexandria can carry costs that outpace national averages. For families who haven’t planned around this possibility, an unexpected long-term care need can put pressure on retirement savings, home equity, or a family’s ability to support both an aging parent and their own financial goals at the same time.

This is where eldercare planning services become essential. Rather than treating long-term care as a separate, later concern, it can be built into a broader financial plan alongside retirement income, investment strategy, and estate considerations.

How Long-Term Care Planning Fits Into a Financial Plan

Long-term care planning isn’t a single decision. It’s a series of questions that benefit from being addressed well before a need arises:

  • How would care be funded? Options may include personal savings, long-term care insurance, hybrid life insurance policies with long-term care riders, or a combination of sources. Each comes with tradeoffs worth evaluating against a household’s broader financial picture.
  • Who would provide or coordinate care? Family members often take on caregiving roles, which can carry their own financial and emotional cost. Planning ahead may help clarify expectations before a crisis forces the decision.
  • How does this affect other financial goals? A long-term care need for a parent, a spouse, or the individual themselves can affect retirement timelines, home ownership decisions, and legacy goals. Coordinating these pieces in advance may help preserve flexibility later.
  • What legal documents need to be in place? Powers of attorney, advance directives, and other estate planning documents often work alongside financial planning to make sure a family’s wishes are clear and coordinated with legal professionals when appropriate.

Because outcomes are never guaranteed and every household’s health, family situation, and financial resources differ, there’s no single right answer here. A structured planning process that reviews these questions early and revisits them as circumstances change tends to leave families in a stronger position than waiting until a care need is already underway.

Starting the Conversation Early

One of the more consistent patterns in eldercare planning is that families who start the conversation early, often well before retirement, tend to feel more confident navigating decisions when a care need actually appears. Waiting until a health event forces the issue often means less time to evaluate options and more pressure to make quick decisions.

At Thrive Wealth Advisors, we work with Alexandria, VA families to fold long-term care and eldercare planning into a broader, coordinated financial strategy. As an independent financial advisory firm based in Alexandria, we take the time to understand a household’s full picture, from retirement accounts and investment strategy to the realities of caring for aging parents or planning for one’s own future care needs.

Frequently Asked Questions

What percentage of people eventually need long-term care? Estimates vary by source, but research generally suggests a large share of individuals turning 65 today, often cited around half to seven in ten, will need some form of long-term care during their lifetime. The type and duration of care varies widely from person to person.

Does long-term care only mean nursing home care? No. Long-term care can include in-home assistance, adult day programs, assisted living, memory care, and skilled nursing care. Many people receive a combination of these over time rather than a single type of care.

How does long-term care planning connect to retirement planning? Long-term care costs can significantly affect retirement savings if they aren’t planned for in advance. Coordinating long-term care considerations with retirement income planning may help preserve flexibility and reduce financial strain later.

When should someone start long-term care planning? There’s no universal answer, but many financial professionals suggest starting the conversation in one’s 50s or early 60s, while there’s more time to evaluate insurance options, savings strategies, and family conversations without the pressure of an immediate need.

Planning Ahead With Confidence

The odds that someone will eventually need long-term care are higher than many Alexandria families realize, and the costs of care in this region make early planning especially worthwhile. While no one can predict exactly what the future holds, building long-term care considerations into a broader financial plan may help families feel more prepared, whatever comes next.

If you’re thinking through long-term care or eldercare planning for yourself or a family member, we invite you to start a conversation with our team at Thrive Wealth Advisors. We’re here to help you think through your options at your own pace. Schedule your free consultation.

 


Important Disclosures

This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or medical advice. Long-term care statistics vary by source and individual circumstances differ. Strategies should be tailored to individual goals, timelines, and risk tolerance. Outcomes are never guaranteed, and estate or legal matters should be coordinated with qualified legal professionals when appropriate.

This article is prepared by Midstream Marketing.

Picture of Jim Worfolk
Jim Worfolk
Jim Worfolk has been a financial advisor since 1997. He started his career with Morgan Stanley and, after spending 10 years there, joined Thrive Wealth Advisors (formerly Krekeler Brower Wealth Advisors) in 2008.
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG, LLC, is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright 2023 FMG Suite.
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