The holidays are lovely, the holidays are fine
Holiday shopping—every year—same time
Some procrastinate and delay, tho last year they swore
To get ahead of the herd, stampeding the stores
Those who shop early often tout the feat
With scarcely concealed superiority
They show us with effort there is no urgency
And we vow again - next year - we’ll show them - they’ll see!
Hello everyone. It has been an exciting year in many ways, not the least of which is the stock market’s volatility. I watch in amazement how the daily moves in the indices seem to take on a life of their own. Pundits expound on every move. They express certainty, they know the reason for the latest move. Yet the “reason” is different contingent on which pundit is chattering. We must accept the market volatility for what it is—a flushing out of different ideas and theories on where the United States and global economies are headed.
Large institutional investors try to decipher the tea leaves of many reports and prognostications of “experts.” They have always looked to the future but it seems lately they are looking farther and farther. Predicting next year, 2019 should be challenge enough but the gurus are now pointing to the year 2020 conveying grave concerns for the American economy. A recession is coming, they say. I believe their proof is suspect, or at least less than assured. We live in a dynamic world where markets may be moved by unforeseen occurrences or pacts.
Respected economists did not predict this latest bull market. Quite the contrary. Predictions of dire consequences and market crashes were rampant in November, 2016. They were wrong. So now they are right? What changed in their analytical models? Why should we deem them credible this time?
Every time the market increases in volatility, as it did in October this year, many investors sell stocks and wait for things to calm down. Often the market moves up quickly, regaining the losses. Other times it takes longer. Those out of the market miss these opportunities.
At Krekeler Brower Wealth Advisors, we invest money based on risk tolerance and time horizon. Timing when to jump in and out of the market is not what we do. I personally have never seen a program, guru, or company do this type of investing successfully over the long-term.
I did not start out to write a screed against the nattering nabobs of negativism but there you have it. Markets go up and markets go down. The earth and the sun go round and round. We cannot change either eventuality.
Now back to the holidays! Some people plan for months in advance, preparing for merriment, but for some this is a sad time of year. People who are alone or may be far from home often struggle with the season. If you know someone like this who could use a little holiday cheer, please share some of yours.
This time of year brings out the very best in people. Please enjoy this season with family and friends, renewing old traditions and perhaps, creating new ones!
As always, we are available to help you fight off procrastination whether in gift giving or planning your financial future!
adron@krekelerbrowerwa.com 703.740.4671
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RkSy6ElNIY Lindsey Stirling—Dance of the Sugar Plum Fairy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVMCUtsmWmQ Burl Ives—Holly Jolly Christmas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1B0eIdwFvI Alvin and the Chipmunks
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.